Feb 16, 2009

Greenhouse gases to climate impact

The impact of greenhouse gases are long-term and global, the impact of suspended particles is short and are regional. Man-made greenhouse gases generated by the greenhouse effect in many areas because of the cooling effect of suspended particles may be underestimated. In such cases, there is a possibility of paradox. Assuming an immediate cessation of human burning of fossil fuels, aerosol content will be immediately dropped from the natural content, and its cooling effect of the role will also stop; and left over from the previous man-made greenhouse gases still continue to play its greenhouse effect, warming the Earth. In such cases, we can not rule out the possibility of global warming rather than the possibility of aggravating. 



 Scientists not only the uncertain role of suspended particles in the radiation volume size, more uncertainty net effect of its climate. Even if greenhouse gases greenhouse effect coincided with the cooling effect of aerosol balance, a net amount of radiation is zero. Whether they would have no impact on climate? The answer is no. The operation of the climate because the world does not depend on the size of the net amount of radiation. Any one region, because the energy imbalance resulting from disturbance may affect the global climate. For example, the Tibetan Plateau in summer the northern hemisphere are a major heat source, its influence throughout the world. Similarly, any one of the suspended particles in the region caused by the cooling effect of atmospheric disturbances, but also to other areas that may affect the climate. 



 Scientists suspect that the past century the global average temperature rise with an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases. In theory, this is certainly possible. But if you look at a strict scientific point of view, we can easily find that many of the confusing. For example, mentioned in this chapter aerosol cooling effect, which in the end how strong? The net effect? Another example, when we compare the 18th century, since the concentrations of greenhouse gases and global average temperature curve, we found that although the general trend of the two similar, there are many inconsistencies in the details. For example, after the industrial revolution, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels on the rapid increase, but why the temperature in the late 19th century until a marked increase in? Little Ice Age of the natural impact of climate change? In another example, since the 1950s, rate of increase of greenhouse gases faster, but why the low temperature during 1950-1970? 



 In addition to climate are countless physical processes by interactions formed. At present, the scientific community on many issues are still not well understood. Based on satellite observation data, the role of clouds of radiation-17Wm-2. That is, if there is no cloud, climate warming may be more. Some changes in cloud cover caused by the volume of radiation have been with considerable warming of greenhouse gases (over the past 100 years for the 2.45 Wm-2). Over the past 10 years through satellite observations, the scientific community on the cloud / radiation increasing the understanding of the relationship, but still limited. Low clouds tend to cool the troposphere, but the high cloud is a warming effect. If carbon dioxide doubling of atmospheric water vapor content may increase, then the distribution of cloud what change? Changes in different types of clouds, the climate may have completely different effects. And the impact of clouds is a lot we do not know much about one of the physical processes.

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